Colorado St.

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	234.0
Current RPI:	234
Expected SOS:	113
Current SOS:	113
Current Record:	10-21
Expected Record:	10-21
Current Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Conf Record:	4-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	5-2
Current OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC Record:	6-6
Expected OOC RPI:	185
Expected OOC SOS:	154

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-21	234.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Colorado St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	72-61	W	100%
11-14	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	80-76	W	100%
11-17	Tulane (175.0)	Amer	N	80-53	L	0%
11-19	Florida St. (54.0)	ACC	N	90-73	L	0%
11-22	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	89-76	L	0%
11-24	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	72-60	W	100%
11-28	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	77-67	L	0%
12-2	Colorado (82.0)	P12	H	72-63	W	100%
12-5	Arkansas (30.0)	SEC	A	92-66	L	0%
12-8	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	95-65	L	0%
12-17	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	66-58	W	100%
12-23	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	68-66	W	100%
12-27	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	93-71	L	0%
12-30	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	52-59	W	100%
1-2	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	68-77	L	0%
1-6	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	79-82	L	0%
1-10	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	75-84	W	100%
1-13	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	73-78	W	100%
1-17	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	H	71-76	L	0%
1-20	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	74-79	L	0%
1-24	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	97-78	L	0%
1-27	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	80-65	L	0%
1-31	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	H	86-91	L	0%
2-3	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	67-76	L	0%
2-6	Air Force (253.0)	MWC	A	78-73	L	0%
2-10	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	90-79	W	100%
2-17	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	86-65	L	0%
2-21	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	54-87	L	0%
2-25	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	A	92-83	L	0%
2-28	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	87-108	L	0%
3-7	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	N	76-65	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Colorado St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Colorado St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Colorado St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Colorado St.	MWC	26.27	26.27	29.37	29.37	-10.84	-10.84
New Mexico	MWC	4.24	4.24	51.61	51.61	0.14	0.14
San Diego St.	MWC	4.18	4.18	65.52	65.52	1.30	1.30
Utah St.	MWC	4.16	4.16	48.39	48.39	-0.13	-0.13
Wyoming	MWC	4.13	4.13	60.00	60.00	0.83	0.83
Fresno St.	MWC	4.12	4.12	60.71	60.71	0.88	0.88
Boise St.	MWC	4.09	4.09	71.43	71.43	1.75	1.75
Nevada	MWC	4.08	4.08	78.12	78.12	2.30	2.30
Air Force	MWC	4.07	4.07	29.63	29.63	-1.66	-1.66
San Jose St.	MWC	4.04	4.04	11.11	11.11	-3.14	-3.14
UNLV	MWC	2.60	2.60	59.38	59.38	0.49	0.49
Oregon	P12	1.75	1.75	63.64	63.64	0.48	0.48
Colorado	P12	1.74	1.74	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.72	1.72	17.24	17.24	-1.13	-1.13
New Mexico St.	WAC	1.71	1.71	82.76	82.76	1.12	1.12
Texas St.	SB	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Arkansas	SEC	1.67	1.67	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Long Beach St.	BW	1.67	1.67	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Florida St.	ACC	1.64	1.64	63.33	63.33	0.44	0.44
Tulane	Amer	1.64	1.64	43.33	43.33	-0.22	-0.22
Missouri St.	MVC	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Northwestern St.	Slnd	1.61	1.61	8.33	8.33	-1.34	-1.34
Winthrop	BSth	1.61	1.61	59.26	59.26	0.30	0.30
Arizona	P12	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.21	0.21	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Pacific	WCC	0.20	0.20	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Utah	P12	0.20	0.20	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Denver	Sum	0.19	0.19	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.19	0.19	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
UC Irvine	BW	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.18	0.18	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Washington St.	P12	0.17	0.17	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.16	0.16	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.15	0.15	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.15	0.15	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.15	0.15	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Portland	WCC	0.14	0.14	24.14	24.14	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Radford	BSth	0.13	0.13	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.13	0.13	14.29	14.29	-0.09	-0.09
Rice	CUSA	0.13	0.13	17.24	17.24	-0.09	-0.09
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.13	0.13	80.65	80.65	0.08	0.08
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UC Davis	BW	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Drake	MVC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Valparaiso	MVC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.12	0.12	32.00	32.00	-0.04	-0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
UC Riverside	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana St.	MVC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.05	-0.05
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.10	0.10	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.10	0.10	84.38	84.38	0.07	0.07
Santa Clara	WCC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.10	0.10	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Washington	P12	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.09	0.09	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Seattle	WAC	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.08	0.08	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Louisville	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Davidson	A10	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.07	0.07	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.06	0.06	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Army	Pat	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.06	0.06	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
George Mason	A10	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
UMKC	WAC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.02	0.02	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01